How to say "likelihood" in Japanese
Choosing the right word
- 確率かくりつnounCovers likelihood in the quantitative sense of probability — how likely something is, as a figure or percentage. Typical context: statistics, games of chance, and talk about the probability of rain, success, or failure.
- 公算こうさんnounCovers likelihood as estimated odds that something will happen — the kind of judgment made in forecasts and analyses. Typical context: written assessments weighing how likely an outcome is, saying the likelihood is high or low.
- 可能性かのうせいnounCovers likelihood in its most general sense: the chance that something may happen or be the case. Typical context: ordinary discussion of whether something could occur, saying the likelihood is high, low, or slight.
- 見込みみこみnounCovers likelihood as a chance judged from the present situation — the prospect or expectation that something will happen. Typical context: schedules, forecasts, and estimates such as chances of recovery or completion.
- nounNot a neutral word for likelihood: it really means the risk or fear that something bad may happen, and is usually written in kana. Typical context: weather and disaster warnings.
Use 確率 for probability as a measure, 可能性 for the general chance that something may happen, 「見込み」 for expected prospects, 公算 for likelihood in forecasts and assessments, and 「おそれ」 only when the outcome feared is bad.
Usage comparisons are AI-assisted and cross-checked by multiple models; for study reference only
Japanese equivalents
See also
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