公算|こうさんkousan[0]heiban (flat)

1. nounprobability; likelihood

• Synonym確率かくりつNeutralNeutral word for probability as a number, as in 「降水確率」「確率が高い」; 「公算」 instead gauges how likely a situation is to develop.
• Synonym見込みみこみNeutralMeans outlook or forecast and covers good and bad outcomes alike, as in 「合格の見込み」「赤字になる見込み」.
• SynonymプロバビリティーWrittenWritten loanword for probability with an academic, translated feel; rare in everyday use — 「確率」 is the usual word.
• Synonym蓋然性がいぜんせいWrittenWritten term for likelihood, used in academic discussion of law, philosophy and the like and in written judgments; stresses degree of probability.
• Related可能性かのうせいNeutralThe everyday word for possibility, with a very broad range; 「公算」 is mostly a news term.
• Related蓋然がいぜんWrittenWritten, academic term, now rarely used on its own; it survives mainly in the compound 「蓋然性」.
• Related蓋然率がいぜんりつWrittenWritten, academic word for probability, now little used; in daily speech say 「確率」.

Use 「公算」 for how likely a situation is to develop, mainly in news writing, as in 「当選の公算が大きい」. In everyday speech say 「可能性」; for numerical probability use 「確率」; for expected outcomes use 「見込み」; in written academic argument use 「蓋然性」.

Usage comparisons are AI-assisted and cross-checked by multiple models; for study reference only

1. 「確率かくりつ」のかつての言い方いいかた。「probability」の訳語やくご。
2. あることが起おこる見込みこみの度合どあい。蓋然性がいぜんせい。