How to say "probability" in Japanese

• 確率かくりつJLPT N2approx.Common
  nounThe default word for probability as a measurable quantity — the likelihood of something happening, expressed as a figure. It is at home in mathematics and statistics, where probabilities are calculated.
  キャンセル待まちで乗のれる確率かくりつはどれくらいですか。↗

  If I wait, what's the possibility I can get a seat?
• 公算こうさんCommon
  nounProbability as likelihood — the odds that something will happen, as weighed in estimates or assessments of outcomes. It fits predictions and analyses in which an event's chances are being judged.
• 見込みみこみJLPT N1approx.Common
  nounProbability as expected chances or prospects — how likely something seems on the basis of judgment or circumstances rather than calculation. With hope and outlook among its core senses, it fits plans and forecasts.
  そんな計画けいかくはほとんど成功せいこうする見込みこみはありません。↗

  Such a plan can hardly succeed.
• 可能性かのうせいCommon
  nounIn essence the word for possibility — that something can or may happen. It is the broadest of the four, covering chance, likelihood, and probability in general statements about what may occur.
  彼女かのじょが電車でんしゃに乗のり遅おくれた可能性かのうせいはあるでしょうか。↗

  Might she have missed her train?

Use 確率 for probability as a measurable, numerical likelihood, 公算 for the odds of an outcome in estimates and assessments, 「見込み」 for expected chances or prospects, and 可能性 for possibility and likelihood in general.

Usage comparisons are AI-assisted and cross-checked by multiple models; for study reference only

• 確率かくりつprobability
• 公算こうさんprobability
• 見込みみこみhope
• 可能性かのうせいpossibility
• 蓋然がいぜんprobability
• プロバビリティーprobability
• 蓋然性がいぜんせいprobability
• 確からしさたしからしさprobability